Dominik Folli and Irenaeus Wolff, Journal of Economic Psychology, 88: 102458, 2022
- Does it matter whether you ask: „what do you think did your opponent do?“ or „what do you think did everybody else do?“ We show it does.
- In general, people show a clear consensus effect. But when it‘s a bad thing to do what my opponent does and you ask me for my guess about the opponent‘s action, I‘ll re-adjust and ex-post rationalise my action. Therefore: don‘t ask me about my opponent‘s action in such cases (my reports are going to be distorted twice rather than only once)!
- We find no evidence of a hindsight bias or wishful thinking in any of the treatments.
