2020 (with Sebastian Fehrler and Baiba Renerte), download
- We use a standard ingredient of many models and experiments to obtain a setting in which both social projection and information neglect could happen: two urns (states of the world), a light one (2 light balls, 1 dark ball) and a dark one (2 dark balls, 1 light ball). Participants get a signal (a single draw) from the actually-drawn urn and have to guess on the colour of the next-to-be-drawn ball + to indicate the probabilities of the urn being light or dark and of the next ball being light or dark. Up to 70% report a 50-50 belief on the urn question, indicating that they cannot learn anything from the signal. We go to great lengths to induce learning in three consecutive experiments, but to little avail.
