TWI-RPS „Heuristic Centered-Belief Players“ (R&R, Journal of Economic Psychology) download
- introduces the name-your-prize game: choose [27 EUR, 30 EUR, or 33 EUR] and you get it, unless your opponent chooses the same amount. Leads to a U-shaped aggregate pattern that is mostly robust to (17) variations.
- observes that none of the popular behavioural-econ models predicts the pattern
- A cluster-analysis of beliefs suggests that Noisy Introspection accounts for 50% of the data. The same analysis points to a new behavioural type that has roughly symmetric center-peaked beliefs, which displays a very strong aggregate U-pattern in the name-your-prize game (which causes the overall pattern to be U-shaped)
- The type also exists in existing 11–20-game data, where the type accounts for a disproportionate share of choices of 16 and below (which are irrational given the beliefs)
- The type has across-game predictive power: people classified by their name-your-prize beliefs as „heuristic centered-belief players“ account for a disproportionate share of choices of 16 and below in the 11–20 game
